[eng] In 2016 the presence of the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa was detected in Majorcan almond trees
and was regarded as the causal pathogen agent of the mortality of these trees over the last fifteen
years. Xylella fastidiosa, being endemic of the Americas, is an insect-transmitted bacterium which
is considered one of the major threats to plants worldwide for its large number of hosts, strains
and potential vectors. By 2017 the reported incidence of the bacterium over Majorcan almond
trees was 79.5% ± 2.0, presenting a great danger to one of the historical crops of the Balearic
Islands. then, the aim of this project is to develop a first step on the study of this epidemic by
means of a deterministic compartmental (mean-field) model. In particular, we present a model
for the vector assisted transmission of the pathogen, performing an analytical and computational
analysis. The model incorporates the specific biological and epidemiological considerations of the
bacterium Xylella fastidiosa and its interactions with insects and hosts in Majorca Island. In our
work the vector (insect) population varies with time, mimicking the field observations. One of the
conclusions is that, in general, this temporal variation hinders the theoretical characterization of
epidemic thresholds. We show that only in the case that the vector population is all the time in its
stationary value, the epidemic threshold can be calculated using the standard techniques, and we
numerically characterize the value of this threshold
[cat] El passat 2016 es va detectar la pres`encia del bacteri Xylella fastidiosa als ametllers de les Illes
Balears, i es determin`a com la causa de la mortaldat en aquests arbres dels darrers quinze anys.
Aquest bacteri, que es transmet per via d’insectes, ´es end`emic del continent Americ`a, i ´es considerat
un dels pat`ogens que major risc representa per a les plantes a escala global, a causa del seu
gran nombre d’hostes, ceps i vectors potencials. En data de 2017, es report`a una incid`encia del
bacteri d’un 79.5% ± 2.0 en els ametllers mallorquins, posant en greu risc un dels cultius hist`orics
de les Balears. L’objectiu d’aquest projecte ´es doncs presentar una primera base per estudiar
aquesta epid`emia mitjan¸cant models compartimentals deterministes (de camp mitj`a). Concretament,
presentam un model matem`atic per a la transmissi´o de l’epid`emia, que analitzem anal´ıticament
i computacionalment, on incorporam els trets biol`ogics i epidemiol`ogics caracter´ıstics del bacteri
Xylella fastidiosa i la seva interacci´o amb insectes i hostes a l’illa de Mallorca. En el nostre model
la poblaci´o del vector (insecte) varia amb el temps, imitant les observacions de camp. Un dels
resultats d’aquest treball ´es que aquesta variaci´o temporal obstaculitza la caracteritzaci´o te`orica
dels llindars d’epid`emia. Demostram que nom´es en el cas que la poblaci´o de vectors estigui tot el
temps en el seu valor estacionari, el llindar de l’epid`emia es pot calcular utilitzant les t`ecniques
est`andard, i caracteritzam num`ericament el valor d’aquest llindar.