Research on Forecast of Chinese Inbound Tourism Volume : Based on Google Trends

Abstract

[eng] This article is based on Google Trends of Chinese international tourists forecast research. Firstly, the literature review and theoretical basis are sorted out. The literature review will be conducted in a chronological order to analyze the research status of the prediction of the number of tourists based on the web search data provided by Google search engines since 2009.On the theoretical basis, summarize and analyze the keyword selection method, and then carry out the selection of Google trend data, combined with the relevant websites to collect the data of inbound foreign visitors.Then involved in tourism activities based on Google trends to provide food, accommodation, transportation, traveling, shopping, entertainment of relevant keyword search data, combined with the same period and foreign visitors to different period data (web search and the actual tourism activities has acertain amount of time lag), using SPSS to the Pearson correlation analysis between the two, and select appropriate number of keywords.Then, the ARIMAX prediction model was constructed. Based on the monthly data from 2004 2to 2019, the best model was fitted and predicted, and the prediction accuracy was tested based on the actual data, and the relevant conclusions were finally made.