Exploring the limits of ensemble forecasting via solutions of the Liouville equation for realistic geophysical models

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dc.contributor.author Hermoso, A.
dc.contributor.author Homar, V.
dc.contributor.author Yano, J.I.
dc.date.accessioned 2020-07-22T06:57:30Z
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/11201/153132
dc.description.abstract [eng] The atmosphere is an exemplary case of uncertain system. The state of such systems is described by means of probability density functions which encompass uncertainty information. In this regard, the Liouville equation is the theoretical framework to predict the evolution of the state of uncertain systems. This study analyses the morphological characteristics of the time evolution of probability density functions for some low complexity geophysical systems by solving the Liouville equation in order to obtain tractable solutions which are otherwise unfeasible with currently available computational resources. The current and usual modest approach to over- come these obstacles and estimate the probability density function of the system in realistic weather and climate applications is the use of a discrete and small number of samples of the state of the system, evolved individually in a deterministic, perhaps sometimes stochastic, way. We investigate particular solutions of the shallow water equations and the barotropic model that allow to apply the Liouville formalism to explore its topological characteristics and interpret them in terms of the ensemble prediction system approach. We provide quantitative evidences of the high variability that solutions to Liouville equation may present, challenging currently accepted uses and interpretations of ensemble forecasts.
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dc.relation.isformatof Versió postprint del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105127
dc.relation.ispartof Atmospheric Research, 2020, vol. 246, p. 105127-105127
dc.subject.classification 53 - Física
dc.subject.other 53 - Physics
dc.title Exploring the limits of ensemble forecasting via solutions of the Liouville equation for realistic geophysical models
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
dc.date.updated 2020-07-22T06:57:30Z
dc.date.embargoEndDate info:eu-repo/date/embargoEnd/2026-12-31
dc.embargo 2026-12-31
dc.rights.accessRights info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess
dc.identifier.doi https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105127


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