Ensemble prediction of Mediterranean high-impact events using potential vorticity perturbations. Part I: Comparison against the multiphysics approach

Abstract

The western Mediterranean is a very cyclogenetic area and many of the cyclones developed over this region are associated with high-impact weather phenomena that affect the society of the coastal countries. Two ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) based on multiphysics and perturbed initial and boundary conditions (IBC) are designed in order to improve the forecast of these heavy rain episodes. The MM5 mesoscale model nested in the ECMWF forecast fields provides the simulations, run at 22.5 km resolution for a two-day period. The multiphysics ensemble combines different model physical parameterization schemes while the other ensemble perturbs the initial state and boundary forcing of the model with the aid of a PV inversion scheme. A PV error climatology derived from the large-scale fields allows to perturb the ECMWF PV fields using the appropriate error range. The verification procedure indicates that even though both EPSs are skillful, the perturbed IBC ensemble is more proficient than the multiphysics EPS for the 19 Mediterranean cyclonic events with heavy rain considered in the study. Therefore the results show a more dominant role of the uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions than the model error, although both of them contribute significantly to improve the predictability of Western Mediterranean high impact weather situations.