A Compartmental Model for Xylella fastidiosa Diseases with Explicit Vector Seasonal Dynamics

Abstract

The bacterium Xylella fastidiosa is mainly transmitted by the meadow spittlebug Philaenus spumarius in Europe, where it has caused significant economic damage to olive and almond trees. Understanding the factors that determine disease dynamics in pathosystems that share similarities can help to design control strategies focused on minimizing transmission chains. Here, we introduce a compartmental model for X. fastidiosa-caused diseases in Europe that accounts for the main relevant epidemiological processes, including the seasonal dynamics of P. spumarius. The model was confronted with epidemiological data from the two major outbreaks of X. fastidiosa in Europe, the olive quick disease syndrome in Apulia, Italy, caused by the subspecies pauca, and the almond leaf scorch disease in Mallorca, Spain, caused by subspecies multiplex and fastidiosa. Using a Bayesian inferenceframework, we show how the model successfully reproduces the general field data in both diseases. In a global sensitivity analysis, the vector-to-plant and plant-to-vector transmission rates, together with the vector removal rate, were the most influential parameters in determining the time of the infectious host population peak, the incidence peak, and the final number of dead hosts. We also used our model to check different vector-based control strategies, showing that a joint strategy focused on increasing the rate of vector removal while lowering the number of annual newborn vectors is optimal for disease control.