Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Wildlife Tourism in Africa: A Comparative Analysis of Travel Climate Indices for Kruger National Park and Serengeti National Park

Abstract

[eng] Nature-based tourism, including wildlife tourism in Africa, is a substantial and growing segment of the global tourism industry (Ma et al., 2021). Serengeti National Park in Tanzania and Kruger National Park in South Africa are key players in this field. Despite their significance, limited research has explored the relationship between tourism and climate in these areas (Dube & Nhamo, 2020). This study evaluates conventional climate indices' applicability in understanding tourism dynamics in these national parks. We hypothesise that parks with favourable travel climate indices experience higher tourism demand. Additionally, climate conditions influence tourist arrivals due to preferences for optimal climate conditions and changing patterns over time. We analysed historical climate and visitor data, including temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and cloud cover. Travel climate indices were calculated to assess tourism suitability. Our analysis reveals notable changes in travel climates for both parks, impacting the timing and quality of wildlife sightings. Key months with more or less favourable conditions for tourism were identified.