Consumer Sentiment in the United States and the Impact of Mental Disorders on Consumer Behavior: Time Trends and Persistence Analysis

Abstract

[eng] This paper analyzes the stochastic properties in clinical disorders to understand how theyhave manifested in consumer sentiment in the USA since 1990. The results obtained via fractionalintegration methodologies exhibit a high degree of persistence, finding non-mean reversion behaviorin all of the time series analyzed, except for depressive disorder. Using a causality test, we findthat mental and substance use disorders, anxiety disorder, schizophrenia, and alcohol use disorderinfluence consumer sentiment. Focusing on the cointegrating part, we conclude that an increase inthe previously cited mental disorders produces a decrease in the Consumer Sentiment Index.